*Osama Suleiman from Vienna
Goldman Sachs expects that the Iranian oil will lose 1.5 million barrels per day by November. Other supply losses would raise the supply loss to 2 million bpd.
The investment bank pointed out that some doubt the size of the impact of sanctions in reducing the Iranian supply and estimated losses of about one million barrels per day. It pointed out that it would be a guess, because Iranian tankers are already shutting down their own tracking devices as they exit export terminals.
"While the risks of bullish prices will continue to prevail at the moment, the core energy outside of Iran is not going up properly," the report said, citing analysts at the investment bank.
It explained that production in Libya and Nigeria was higher than expected by 300 thousand barrels per day in addition to increasing production in Saudi Arabia and political stability of Iraq.
This referred to the prospects of increasing production from Kurdistan, which also may represent a temporary storage of supplies, which is reducing the supply anxiety caused by geopolitical concerns as a result of sanctions to be applied to Iran.
Goldman Sachs has been optimistic about oil for much of this year since mid-July. It is also expected that Brent crude prices may continue to rise above $ 85 a barrel this year, despite growing uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of global supply disruptions.
On the other hand, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries "OPEC" confirmed that producers in and outside OPEC are on the threshold of launching a broader cooperation at the December meeting in Vienna.
A recent report by the Organization of Petroleum that reported from Gas Minister in Oman, Mohammed al-Rumahi, as he said that producers are proud of what has been accomplished now. He pointed out that the upcoming meetings and discussions of the producers will focus on sending a message explaining fairness, unity and joint action to protect the industry.
Al-Ramhi said that the last two years showed the results of joint cooperation, which focused on supporting the exchange of information and transparency among all players in the market and not only producers.
Al-Ramahi believes that OPEC's success in integrating all the major players into joint work programs supports confidence in the market in general. He stressed that this cooperation will remain and will serve everyone.
According to the report, Suhail Al Mazrouei, UAE Minister of Energy, said that "OPEC" is always optimistic about the market and recognizes that the big challenges provide greater potential and better innovations.
He pointed out that the producers will do their utmost to reach a better agreement in the interest of all countries and industry in general. He stressed that a promising foundation has already been laid for the future.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest report, "Seasonal factors will soon pressure crude oil prices and will succeed in offsetting the current bullish trend." It noted that the market is in the season of maintenance of refineries and therefore "we will see the construction of stocks because the refineries do not consume much of the crude, as the construction process can last for a while."
The petrochemical sector will lead the demand for oil more and more prominently as the petrochemical sector will be the main driver of global demand for crude oil, as it will represent more than a third of the growth in oil demand until 2030 and nearly half by 2050. It would be ahead of trucks and aviation as transportation will begin to lose its position as a driving force for demand growth in the coming years.
The report pointed out that there are a few key alternatives to crude oil and natural gas in the petrochemical sector.
The report quoted a State Department official as saying that the United States would work with Saudi Arabia to use standby power. The United States also continues to cooperate with OPEC countries and encourages the use of its reserves to ensure that global demand for oil is met.
The report pointed out that Saudi Arabia is investing $ 20 billion in standby energy in order to preserve and develop it. There are Saudi capabilities to raise production to 12 or 13 million barrels per day.
The World Oil report pointed to Saudi Arabia's assertion that taming high oil prices is not the sole responsibility of Saudi Arabia and that the kingdom is fulfilling its promises to compensate for the Iranian crude oil supplies that has lost as a result of US sanctions.
The international report said that the request made by America to Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries is to ensure that if there is any shortage of supplies from Iran, Saudi Arabia will compensate it, which has already happened.
It explained that Saudi Arabia already has sufficient capacity to cover the losses of Iran in full.
It noted that a coalition of producers from OPEC and abroad has finally boosted production by 1.5 million barrels per day, doubling Iran's 700,000 bpd drop.
The report quoted Amartya Sen, a senior oil analyst in the region
Nashyspix Aspect Consultancy, said that the standby power is short-term and may reach its maximum speed.
Additional supplies are also available from other Gulf producers such as the UAE, as well as non-OPEC countries such as Russia and the OPEC + alliance in general, the report said.
Oil prices settled at the end of the week after jumping earlier to four-year highs, and Brent crude and US crude ended the week on gains one month ahead of US sanctions on Iran's oil exports.
Washington wants governments and companies around the world to stop buying Iranian oil to pressure Tehran to renegotiate a nuclear deal.
According to Reuters, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude futures ended trading session up one cent to settle at $ 74.34 a barrel.
Brent crude for December delivery fell 42 cents to settle at $ 84.16 a barrel. Brent hit the highest level since late 2014 at $ 86.74.
US crude ended the week up 1.3 percent, while Brent climbed 1.4 percent.
Oil drilling in the United States fell for a third week in a row despite crude oil prices that were hitting their highest level in four years. The rising costs and pipeline bottlenecks in the country's largest oilfield have impeded new drilling since June.
Baker Hughes Energy Services said in its closely monitored weekly report, "The drilling companies stopped the operation of two oil diggers in the week ended October 5, which is bringing the total number of rigs to 861."
It was the longest weekly drop in the number of rigs since October last year.
The number of active oil rigs in America, a preliminary indicator of future production, remains higher than a year ago when it hit 748 when energy companies increased production to take advantage of a rally in prices. But since June, the number of diggers has been around 860.
Since the beginning of the year, the average number of oil and gas excavators operating in the United States is 1020. This would keep the total number of diggers for 2018 on track to record the highest level since 2014.
